|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DodgerJunkie has decided to move...sort of. I had been offered to team up with SoCal Sports Hub to try and bring more interest and knowledge into the LA sports market. I will be posting all my Dodgers news and notes there. If you're interested...
http://socalsportshub.com/
Enjoy.
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Experts have touted that the Mets are the best team in the NL going into 2008. For grins, here's a little comparison between New York and Los Angeles... |
|
|
|
|
|
On March 15th and 16th the Los Angeles Dodgers are headed east - very far east. They will be taking on the San Diego Padres in the first ever Major League exhibition games in the country. This will hopefully continue the goal of spreading this great sport throughout the entire world. Nothing like a little globalization.
There has been one minor set back which is going to delay the trip by about 20 hours. Manager Joe Torre said "The only thing it really does is eliminate the off-day there. It just makes sightseeing a little tighter."
Meanwhile, the Dodgers China roster has been released. You can view the list as well as stats here...
Roster
So if you happen to get some tickets, those are the guys you'll get to see! Feel free to send us your photos...
|
|
|
|
|
|
The fifth spot in the Dodgers starting rotation has been a question mark all winter and recent reports on Dodgers.com doesn't give much hope. Jason Schmidt, acquired during last year's off-season, was disappointed with his outing during his fourth bullpen session.
"I'm trying not to get frustrated and not put myself under the
microscope. I've been through rehab before and I know you don't always
feel better each and every time. It's just been going so good, you want
it to just keep going all spring. But I know to expect to have dips
like this."
he said.
A major concern is the fact that his fastball was an issue. As the 2007 season began it was very obvious his fastball was not what it was hoped to be. This caused speculation about his health, which eventually lead to surgery on his right shoulder.
At this point, I have to believe that Schmidt is not going to be the guy to count on. It's early and rehab takes time, but at his age I have trouble seeing him having any success in 2008. Esteban Loaiza, who is terrible, is probably a better option as the Los Angeles fifth starter.
|
|
|
|
|
|
I normally wouldn't put much stock in this, but now it's been reported in multiple places. It appears the Dodgers are considering a trade for A's starter Joe Blanton. There is no question Blanton is a solid pitcher, who at 27 is already 42-34 with a 4.10 ERA in the American League. The real issue is how much with he cost in terms of players.
The rumored asking price is Ethier, Laroche and a prospect for Blanton. This is too steep for my taste, unless Eric Chavez is also coming back in the deal. I'm not that high on Chavez, but giving up Laroche means that Nomar becomes the starting 3B with no good backup when (not if) he gets injured. I would be willing to package Ethier and a high level prospect not named Kershaw or Laroche to get the deal done. My guess is that won't be enough for Billy Beane though. This is one to keep an eye on as we are now just 4 days until pitchers and catchers report.
In other news, it appears the Dodgers are close to resigning Mark Sweeney to continue as the primary pinch hitter and backup to James Loney. I am totally on board with this move as Sweeney is the second best pinch hitter of all time, right behind Lenny Harris.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Football is over and that means baseball is just around the corner. Pitchers and catchers report in 9 days with the rest of the squad due 5 days later.
This spring will certainly be an interesting one for the Dodgers. Coming off a second half collapse that had the Dodgers lose 11 of their final 14 games and barely finish over .500, the microscope is on Joe Torre to right the ship. Here are some of the outstanding questions Torre will have to answer:
Who plays third base?
It comes down to Nomar vs. Andy Laroche. Old, declining player vs. world of talent, yet injury prone youth. Laroche looked overmatched last year in the majors, but did show an incredible amount of patience, walking 20 times in less than 100 at bats. The most alarming stat about Nomar:
First half of 2006: .358 11 HRs 53 RBIs
Since (1 and a half seasons): .266 16 HRs 99 RBIs
Prediction: Based on Nomar's ability to play multiple positions, Laroche will get the starting nod unless he is just absolutely terrible in spring training. This is a position where I could see an upgrade by midseason if neither is hitting well.
Who is the 5th starter?
Conventional wisdom says that, if healthy, this is Schmidt's spot. Of course, that's the catch. Schmidt was saying he felt fine last year when he was throwing 80 MPH fastballs. Can the Dodgers take him at his word? I have to think that unless he is consistently throwing in the low to mid 90s by late spring, he will start the year on the disabled list.
The alternative is, GULP!, Esteban Loaiza. Loaiza was so God awful as a Dodger last year that I cringe at the thought that he will certainly make the team, much less probably be in the rotation. The non-roster invite list is equally vomit inducing and don't even mention Chan Ho Park.
On the flip side, a couple of younger players could step up and snag the spot or rescue the team when Torre realizes Loaiza is the ghost of Brett Tomko. Hong-Chih Kuo is a prime candidate for this spot, if he can just stay on the field and avoid injury. A sleeper candidate is James McDonald, if he has a great spring. McDonald is likely to start the year in AAA though.
Prediction: I think Loaiza gets the call out of the gate, but the 5th starter slot will be troublesome for the Dodgers throughout 2008 and could be a revolving door. Before you bring it up, don't expect Clayton Kershaw to have a realistic shot this year. He will spend the majority of the year in AA and is, at best, a September call up. We could see an upgrade via trade here too.
Who rounds out the bullpen?
It is unknown whether Torre intends to have 11 or 12 pitchers out of the gate. We'll assume 11 for the sake of argument. You can safely assume that Saito, Broxton, Beimel and Proctor are locks for the team. That leaves 2 slots on an 11 man staff. Since none of these guys are long relievers, I'd have to assume that Loaiza would make the team in a slot, even if Schmidt starts the year in the rotation. If Schmidt doesn't make the team, then this could be a free-for-all for 2 slots.
Let's assume the team will try to have 2 lefty relievers at all costs. That means that one slot will proibably come down to Kuo (unless he is in the rotation), Mike Myers (lots of experience and played for Torre before) or one of the other non roster lefty invites.
The other slot will come down to Brazoban, Seanez and (maybe) Jonathan Meloan. Brazoban is coming off surgery so he most likely will start the year in the minors. Meloan is likely headed to the minors too, unless he has a spectacular spring.
Prediction: If Schmidt does break camp with the team, I think Torre will end up starting the year with 12 pitchers to be safe. That means Loaiza takes one. The other 2 will most likely be Kuo (if healthy) and Seanez. Kuo is out of options and certainly won't clear waivers in order to get sent to the minors. Seanez will win a spot just based on last year's stats.
Who is the 5th outfielder?
We all know the top 4 guys, assuming no trade is made. Jones, Kemp, Pierre and Ethier. The 5th spot comes down to Jason Repko (yes, he is still alive) and Delwyn Young. This is a clear choice for me. Repko has been injured so much that he brings back memories of Jayson Werth. He would have to have a ridiculous spring to prove he should be given a chance. Young had a spectacular year in AAA last year (including 54 doubles) and, more importantly, is out of options. Like Kuo, the Dodgers would certainly lose Young if he had to clear waivers.
Prediction: Delwyn Young makes the squad and Jason Repko is finally put out of his misery.
Who starts in LF?
Saved the best one for last. This topic has been debated to death since the Dodgers signed Andruw Jones. I have to admit that I am on the fence about this. There is no question that Ethier is a superior hitter to Pierre. The only question really is: Is Pierre's speed and its psychological impact on a pitcher worth benching Ethier? Ethier bats lefty and Pierre righty, so Torre could go the safe route and platoon them for awhile. Pierre could also make a great pinch runner in critical game situations, but he has that massive contract to think about.
Prediction: Torre is not afraid to play a young player over an established, overpaid veteran. In this case though, I think we will see a platoon. Ethier will get most of the playing time by default because he will face righties.
Did I miss any pressing issues? Feel free to comment or email us if I did.
In the meantime, can you hear Vinny now saying "It's tiiime for Dodger baseball!" I can't wait folks. |
|
|
|
|
|
Starting Pitchers
Brad Penny:
2007 Stats: 16-4, 3.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 208 IP, 135/73 SO/BB
Brad Penny began the 2007 season much like he began his 2006 campaign: dominating. His first half of both years were all-star performances, but in each year he slipped in the second half. Not so bad in 2007 as in 2006, which is a sign of hope. The entire team slumped badly into the conclusion of last year which may have contributed to Penny's slide. I think this year he will perform a little more consistent in each half. His first half wont be as good as last year, but his second half wont be as bad.
Derek Lowe:
2007 stats: 12-14, 3.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 199.1 IP, 147/59 SO/BB
Derek Lowe has been pretty predictable his three years in Dodger blue. His ERA has been in the high 3 range (3.61, 3.68, 3.88). Seeing it climb over three years is unnerving, but I have faith he'll be a bit better than last year. He pitched over 200 innings in his first two years and just missed that mark last year. He did, however, have 3 complete games in 2007 although they were all in losing efforts. I expect that he'll have a better 2008 than 2007, probably more in tune with his 2006 season. He will be solid, but not dominating.
Chad Billingsley:
2007 stats: 12-5, 3.31 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 147 IP, 141/64 SO/BB
Last year, Billingsley started the season in bullpen. He did very well and eventually got his spot in the starting rotation when Jason Schmidt went down to injury. In his first year, he tossed 90 innings which resulted in 59 strikeouts versus 58 walks. He vastly improved in 2007 - 147 innings, 141 strikeouts versus 64 walks. Looking a bit deeper at only the games he started - 112 innings, 101 strikeouts versus 51 walks. This 23 year old could easily have a breakout season in 2007 as a full-time starter. I am going to predict that he becomes a solid number 2 guy with a chance to be a true ace into 2009.
Hiroki Kuroda:
A lot of nice things have been said about Kuroda. His home park in Japan was very small, yet he still succeeded. A major appeal is his ability to get a lot of ground balls. Much like Derek Lowe, this should work well in Dodger Stadium. I am cautious with Japanese pitchers; their track record has a lot of big failures after making the transition. I don't think Kuroda will be as successful as Daisuke Matsuzaka. I expect he'll end up as a serviceable 4th starter.
Jason Schmidt and Esteban Loaiza:
Jason Schmidt is past his prime for sure. Whether he can muster enough health to pitch a complete season is a question mark. Last year he won 1 game for LA and showed big issues with is velocity from the outset. There has been good news in his progression this offseason, but that is always the case when a guy is coming back from injury. (Mark Prior anyone?)
Esteban Loaiza just isn't a guy you want to rely on. He's well removed from his 21 win season with the White Sox. I really expect the 5th spot of the Dodger rotation to struggle badly. I expect that by the deadline the team will make a change with a signing or trade.
Summary:
1-3, the team looks really good. I have a lot of hope that Chad Billingsley is going to continue to improve and eventually be an ace kind of guy. Brad Penny and Derek Lowe can get the job done and both have proven success in the playoffs. If the team can get there, and these guys can muster some of that past success, this rotation is dangerous.
The pitfalls start with Hiroki Kuroda. Guys from Japan just have a hard time, usually, with the transition. I think he'll be OK, probably do well enough to not hurt the team. That's really all I ask anyway.
It gets bad at the 5th spot, though. Jason Schmidt will never again be a dominating pitcher and who knows if he'll even be able to go a full year. Esteban Loaiza, well he just is not very good. I believe that these guys will hurt the team over the year and probably wont finish the year in the rotation.
|
|
|
|
|
|
MLB.com posted an interesting article this week pondering the question "Which Japanese talent will shine in '08?".
Here's what they had to say about our new 4th starter:
The Dodgers are hoping for a second strike of the Osaka lightning from this 32-year-old right-hander who shares Nomo's hometown. Fukudome may have raised the biggest stir and boldest headlines, but Kuroda triggered the biggest commotion. As many as 20 teams showed an interest in the hard-thrower with impeccable control.
Kuroda parlayed the competition into a hefty raise, signing a three-year deal for $35.3 million after earning less than $3 million in his swan season with the Hiroshima Carp. His modest Japanese numbers -- 103 wins in 11 seasons, with a 3.69 ERA -- are mitigated by circumstances and tools.
He spent half his time on the mound in claustrophobia-inducing Shimin Stadium, with its 300-foot corners and 386 feet to dead center. The Dodgers were more interested in the 96-mph heater that tops a repertoire that also includes a mid-80s forkball and a slider, and and going the distance 74 times in 244 career starts that earned him the Nippon nickname of "Mr. Complete Game."
What I really found interesting (and didn't realize until now) was how small Kuroda's home park actually was. 300 foot corners and 386 to dead center is TINY. I have always taken Japanese player stats with a grain of salt because the league seemed to be a step above AAA at most. In this case though, perhaps the playing field is more level since he was playing half his games in a park equivalent to Colorado before the humidor. His overall stats could translate to the US much more closely than I had anticipated.
Maybe I'm just being too optimistic (as my brother always tells me), but if 20 teams truly showed interest in this guy, I have to trust they really think he may be something special.
Pitchers and catchers report in 2 weeks folks....Are you as pumped as I am? |
|
|
|
|
|
As you all know by now, Johan Santana is going to be a New York Met if he and the team can work out a contract extension. During the hoopla of news spreading I had a chance to speak with a prominent news anchor for a very large sports television network.
My brother has mentioned and rumors have spread that Santana said he did not want to play on the west coast. I asked the anchor if Santana had no interest in going to LA. He said to me that that seemed to be the overall feeling and added that he believed Frank McCourt's disinterest in spending $150 million on a player was a stop gap as well.
Not really breaking news, but interesting anyway.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Copyright . http://BLOG.DODGERJUNKIE.COM. All rights reserved. |
|
